Independent strategy memo · Pro bono
Military Airfields: Bedrock’s Best Government Wedge
Building and repairing military airfields as Bedrock’s first government market, with two expansion paths in the appendices
ToBoris Sofman, CEO, and Kevin Peterson, CTO, Bedrock Robotics
Unsolicited and prepared pro bono. Built only on the open sources linked at the end. Nothing here is proprietary or classified, and it covers only construction, repair, and logistics.
01
The wedge
Bottom line
The best first government market for Bedrock is building and fixing military airfields. The Pacific can be a possible center of gravity.
- It particularly suits Bedrock’s technology.
- Airfield work is open, flat, repetitive earthmoving and grading, the easiest kind of work to automate.
- It is urgent to the customer.
- The Air Force is spreading aircraft across many small Pacific airfields and cannot hire enough equipment operators.
- The value-prop around safety and jobsite risk is even more salient.
- Military construction is even higher risk and thus in even higher need of automated construction.
Recommended first move: run one unclassified earthwork demo on a domestic range, then a small prototype contract through a commercial-friendly defense channel. Keep it walled off from the commercial core.
Why now
- Bases have spread out. Under “Agile Combat Employment,” the Air Force now uses many small, scattered airfields instead of a few big bases. Every field is first an earthwork and repair job.
- The money is real. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative runs about $10 billion a year1. The Guam build-up has more than $11 billion2 set aside. One Navy Pacific construction contract is worth $15 billion3 and explicitly covers aprons and aviation facilities.
- The crews are scarce. The Navy Seabees and Air Force RED HORSE cannot man the workload. Labor availability is the bottleneck, especially on remote islands. Labor quality, when available, also tends to be poor.
Who buys it
Three military engineer groups own this work, and each looks like a commercial customer Bedrock already serves:
- Air Force RED HORSE: heavy construction and rapid airfield repair.
- Navy Seabees: expeditionary airfield and base construction, now focused on the Pacific.
- Army engineers, AFCEC, and ERDC: airfield and base work, including the research lab already studying autonomous earthmoving.
How to get in
- Pilot: one unclassified airfield-earthwork demo on a domestic range (grade a strip, repair a bomb crater).
- Contract: a DIU Commercial Solutions Opening4 leading to an Other Transaction prototype, or an AFWERX Direct-to-Phase-II award5. Both are fast and let Bedrock keep its commercial rights.
How Bedrock could own it
- First-mover advantage to operator-out airfield grading. The team that proves a no-operator machine cutting, filling, and repairing a runway in the field sets a bar competitors then have to clear.
- Lock in through the machines and the primes. A reversible kit on standard Caterpillar- and Deere-class iron, run through primes already on contract, is easy to adopt and hard to rip out once it is in the workflow.
- Turn accreditation, government contracts, and site data into a moat. Security accreditation, an authority to operate, and a growing library of real airfield maps are barriers a fast follower cannot copy quickly.
What the wedge could be worth
| Layer | Size (per year) | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Total market | about $2-5 billion a year. | The airfield-earthwork and runway-repair slice of Pacific military construction (the roughly $10 billion1 Pacific Deterrence Initiative and the $15 billion3 Navy Pacific construction vehicle). |
| Serviceable | about $1-3 billion a year. | The airfield earthwork and pavement Bedrock’s machines can address. |
| Obtainable | about $25-100 million a year at scale. | The autonomy-and-equipment share Bedrock could realistically win on airfield work within 3-5 years. |
The first contract is a small prototype, roughly $1-2 million. That is the way in, not the size of the prize.
Risks to weigh
- Export rules (ITAR) and security clearances.
- GPS jamming and autonomy in contested areas
- Ruggedizing the kit for military machines and rough conditions.
- Competition and prior work (for example, AIM Intelligent Machines, and the big equipment makers).
- Focus risk: defense work pulling attention from the commercial core. Wall it off.
Recommendation
Pursue military airfields as the wedge: the work is the most uniform and the value of taking the operator out is highest there. Treat the two appendices, broader military construction and the larger civilian airfield market, as later expansion choices once the capability is proven, not the opening move.
Single next step: a 30-minute scoping call with DIU’s Autonomy team, or with AFCEC and the Naval Construction Force, to line up the first demo.
02
Expansion paths
Two later expansion choices, collapsed by default. Open each to read the full appendix and its sizing table.
Appendix B Expansion across military construction
If the airfield wedge works, the natural next step inside defense is to put the same machines to work on all military earthmoving, not just airfields. The customers, the contracts, and the autonomy stay the same. The job mix just gets broader.
What changes from the airfield wedge:
- Wider scope. Forward bases, vehicle pads, berms, ranges, fuel and storage sites, and access roads, on top of airfields.
- Same buyers, plus the builders. RED HORSE, Seabees, and Army engineers, plus the construction agents NAVFAC and the Army Corps of Engineers.
- More variety. The work is less uniform than runways, so the autonomy has to handle a wider range of sites.
| Layer | Size (per year) | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Total market | $10-20 billion | All U.S. military construction is about $19.7 billion6 for 2026; the Indo-Pacific posture is about $10 billion1. The world market for autonomous equipment is about $15-18 billion7. |
| Serviceable | $4-6 billion | The earthmoving and grading share of military construction (roughly 20-30 percent of the total). |
| Obtainable | $50-200 million at scale | The autonomy-and-equipment slice Bedrock could win across several contract vehicles within 3-5 years. Entry is still a small prototype. |
How Bedrock wins it:
- Ride contracts that already exist. Task orders under the $15 billion Pacific construction vehicle3 and similar Army and Navy vehicles. No new program needed.
- Partner with primes already on those contracts. Firms like Sundt and Zachry, several of which Bedrock already knows.
- Grow outward from airfields. Expand the job mix once operator-out grading is proven on runways.
Appendix C Expansion across airfield construction
The other direction is to take airfield autonomy beyond the military, into the much larger civilian airport market, plus the steady work of repaving and repairing runways over time. This is a bigger prize, but a harder room to win.
Why it is bigger, but harder:
- Bigger. U.S. airports face about $174 billion8 in capital needs over five years. The airfield-eligible federal slice alone is about $13.5 billion9 a year. Worldwide need is about $2.4 trillion10 by 2040.
- But narrower for Bedrock. The part Bedrock can touch is only the airside (runways, taxiways, aprons, grading), not terminals, which are most of the spending and outside the machine class.
- And it is the hardest paved job there is. Live flights, zero tolerance for debris, night-only work windows, very tight grade tolerances, and strict FAA rules.
- Upside: steady repeat revenue. Repaving and repair recur for the life of every runway, and the same machine serves civil and military fields.
| Layer | Size (per year) | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Total market | $35 billion a year (U.S.) | About $174 billion8 over five years; roughly $13.5 billion9 a year is airfield-eligible. Most of the all-in total is terminals, which are out of scope. Global need is about $2.4 trillion10 by 2040. |
| Serviceable | $3-7 billion | The U.S. airside earthwork and pavement Bedrock can address, plus recurring maintenance. |
| Obtainable | $50-250 million at scale | Civil plus military airfields. Larger than the defense-only cases, but more contested. Entry is commercial. |
How Bedrock wins it:
- Start where it is easiest. Regional and general-aviation airfields, and military airfields, not busy hub runways.
- Sell the retrofit to the contractors who already win this work. The earthwork and paving firms that bid airport jobs are Bedrock’s existing kind of customer.
- Sequence it after the military wedge. Prove the capability first, then enter the toughest environments.
03
Sources
Government budgets and contracts are public, so the numbers above are built from primary U.S. government sources and triangulated with outside market research where no single official figure exists. No published number isolates “autonomous military airfield earthwork,” so the market sizes are estimates with the anchors and links below. Federal spending is verifiable on USAspending.gov and SAM.gov11 by filtering NAICS 237310, 237990, and 238910 and the construction service codes (Y1 for construction, Z2 for repair).
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1
Pacific Deterrence Initiative about $10 billion a year across dispersed basing, logistics, and Indo-Pacific construction. Indo-Pacific
https://comptroller.war.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2026/FY2026_Pacific_Deterrence_Initiative.pdf https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12303
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2
Guam build-up more than $11 billion already allocated; the 2025 defense act adds $2 billion for Guam; example airfield and aviation task orders run $40-330 million. Indo-Pacific
https://buildingindustryhawaii.com/2025/03/hawaii-contractors-launch-major-guam-projects/
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3
Navy Pacific $15 billion construction contract (Sept 2025) one Indo-Pacific vehicle whose scope includes roads, utilities, and aviation facilities such as hangars and aprons. Indo-Pacific
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4
APFIT and DIU APFIT fields production-ready technology at about $10-50 million; DIU uses Commercial Solutions Openings and Other Transactions under 10 U.S.C. 4022. Acquisition
https://www.akelaconsultants.com/post/afwerx-sbir-2025 https://www.diu.mil/
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5
SBIR award sizes about $314,000 for Phase I and $2.1 million for Phase II; Air Force Phase II up to $750,000. Acquisition
https://www.preveil.com/blog/sbir-funding/ https://www.sbir.gov/tutorials/individual-agency-requirements/DOD-services
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6
U.S. military construction, 2026 about $18.9 billion requested and $19.7 billion enacted (construction plus family housing). Indo-Pacific
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12622 https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2026/FY2026_c1.pdf
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7
Autonomous construction equipment market about $15-18 billion in 2026, roughly 9 percent annual growth; earthmoving and roadbuilding are the majority; Caterpillar, Deere, and Komatsu are the incumbents. Acquisition
https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/autonomous-construction-equipment-global-market-report https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/autonomous-construction-equipment-market
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8
U.S. airport capital needs (ACI-NA, 2025-2029) about $173.9 billion over five years, up 15.1 percent from the prior study. Airfields
https://airportscouncil.org/intelligence/airport-infrastructure-needs-study/
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9
Airfield-eligible federal development (FAA NPIAS, FY2025-2029) about $67.5 billion over five years (roughly $13.5 billion a year), the airside-weighted, AIP-eligible subset. Airfields
https://dwuconsulting.com/dwu-ai/airport-capital-funding-and-the-infrastructure-gap
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10
Global airport capital need (ACI World) about $2.4 trillion through 2040; more than half of spending in mature regions is terminals. Airfields
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11
Federal spending databases filter awards by NAICS 237310, 237990, 238910 and service codes Y1 (construction) and Z2 (repair). Verify
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12
FAA Airport Improvement Program more than $3.18 billion a year in grants for more than 3,300 airports. Airfields
https://www.faa.gov/airports/aip/aip_supplemental_appropriation/2023
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13
Bipartisan Infrastructure Law a historic $25 billion for airports, including $15 billion for airport infrastructure grants (runways, taxiways, safety) and $5 billion for terminals; FAA puts the modernization and safety backlog at $43.6 billion. Airfields
https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/faa-announces-first-year-airport-funding-amounts-bipartisan-infrastructure-law https://www.faa.gov/iija/airport-terminals
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14
AFWERX bridge funding STRATFI $3-15 million and TACFI $375,000-$2 million, each with matching. Acquisition
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15
Disaster earthwork comparable the Army Corps 2025 Los Angeles wildfire debris mission was valued at more than $1.3 billion, its largest ever. Verify